Oil Dependency: The Real Threat to National Security
Should rising oil prices still be seen as a national security threat?
Every economic downturn since the end of the Vietnam War has been preceded by a sudden steep increase in the price of oil. The 1974-75 recession , for instance, followed hard on the heels of the formation of the Oil Petroleum Exporting Countries cartel (OPEC), which for the first time imposed sharply higher oil prices on global consumers.
In 2000, oil hit the then unheard of price of $40 a barrel, and within months the dot-come bubble collapsed. Crude spiked over $100 a barrel in 2007, and a few months later the economy tanked. While there were usually other factors driving those downturns – in 2007-09 it was the subprime mortgage mess and resulting financial crisis, for instance – rising oil has always been seen as a major contributor to economic slowdowns , the equivalent of an externally imposed tax that was cause for geopolitical concern.
But this time around, economic prognosticators are saying that the $ 100-a-barrel oil prices of the past two months – as long as they don’t spike into the stratosphere – will only have a transitory impact on growth , which is projected to be above 3 percent for the rest of this year. If their forecasts are right, the U.S. will have turned the corner into a new era, one where oil prices are permanently high but no longer derail the rest of the economy.
Yet little of that new reality has influenced U.S. strategic thinking, which is still dominated by a mindset forged during World War II when global economic and military power depended on controlling access to sources of crude, and naval strategy was predicated on protecting the sea lanes that guaranteed shipments. How else to explain the 11 aircraft carrier battle groups in the $649 billion defense appropriations bill that is sailing through the House of Representatives this week, when no one else in the world has more than one?
Oil is an internationally traded commodity where supply disruptions can occur at any time, in any region and for any reason. As the coordinated response by nations belonging to the International Energy Agency Thursday suggests, the more effective responses in the 21st century will be those that rely on market forces than on the 20th century mindset that uses military might and military-derived influence to guarantee access to increasingly scarce supplies.
The much-maligned President Jimmy Carter articulated the current strategic vision , which has remained essentially unchanged since his 1980 State of the Union Address. With the Iranian hostage crisis dominating the headlines, Carter declared that any “attempt by an outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.
Sudden Vision Change - News
By s Every economic downturn since the end of the Vietnam War has been preceded by a sudden steep increase in the price of oil. The 1974-75 recession, for instance, followed hard on the heels of the formation of the Oil Petroleum Exporting
At a time when the financial crisis in the NHS in Scotland (NHSiS) may lead to sudden and permanent loss of services we hear nothing from the Government over its plans, if any exist. Following the overtly populist and precipitate rejection of the Kerr
Stroke is sudden and sometimes a single attack is enough to kill a patient. However, Raya explained that one may be able to avoid this deadly condition if that person is able to manage outlying conditions including elevated cholesterol levels.
The audience, still taken aback by the sudden change in mood, slowly begins to clap and cheer in recognition of the song. The singer continues: His baritone voice starts deep in his diaphragm, the muscle forcing a blast of air from his lungs,
The school's resources, she said, were all poured into teaching and research, with no budgeting system or reserve fund that might cushion a sudden loss of revenue. "The systems we needed to address the challenges — even down to basic information like
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Sudden Vision Change - Bookshelf
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